Thomas Bayes, an obscure eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician, had a profound impact on the world of probability. Although his theorem at the time was primarily associated with games of chance like dice and cards, its implications were soon recognised to be much broader.

Bayes' theorem not only explain the pitfalls of highly accurate screening tests and their potential for false positives causing undue stress, but also serve as the foundation for rational thinking and prediction. Renowned 'superforecasters', who consistently outperform CIA analysts, utilize a Bayesian approach. In fact, some even view Bayes' theorem as a fundamental description of not just useful tools, but of nearly everything - the very structure underlying rationality and the human mind..

Explore Bayes' theorem and its profound influence on contemporary society with Everything Is Predictable. This masterfully crafted piece blends elements of biography, scientific communication, and intellectual exploration to provide a captivating account. Delve into the realms of medical diagnostics and artificial intelligence and witness the transformative power of a single, compelling concept.

• Hardback
  
• 336 pages
• ISBN: 9781399604031
  
• Publication: 25/04/2024
• Dimensions 19.6 x 12.7 cm