In our universe, uncertainty is a constant. How can we manage the unknown? And what impact do chance, fortune, and serendipity have on our experiences?

David Spiegelhalter has dedicated his profession to analysing data to understand uncertainties and evaluate potential outcomes. In The Art of Uncertainty, he offers readers a glimpse into how we can enhance our abilities in this field.

Spiegelhalter guides readers through the fundamentals of probability, demonstrating its usefulness in analytical thought pertaining to topics ranging from healthcare recommendations to global crises projections. Through this, he also delves into the concept of updating our predictions for the future as our experiences continually evolve. Along the journey, he reveals the surprisingly high reliance on chance in football, provides insight into the National Risk Register's assessment of current hazards in the UK, and elucidates the undeniable fact that two completely shuffled decks of cards have never had the same arrangement.

With a diverse collection of real-life experiences, this is a must-have handbook for navigating chance, ignorance, risk, and luck, while gracefully acknowledging the limits of our knowledge.

• Hardback
  
• 512 pages
• ISBN: 9780241658628
• Publication: 19/09/2024
• Dimensions 22.4 x 19.3 cm